Parv Sharma - Counterpoint

Qualcomm Guides Recovery in Handset Market, Channel Inventory Improving

Parv Sharma — Tue, 07 Nov 2023 10:00:07 +0000

Total revenues declined by 24% annually in Q3 2023 to reach $8.6 billion. The revenues slightly increased sequentially due to the recovery in the smartphone market and improving channel inventory.
The company’s handsets business captured revenues of $5.5 billion, declining 27% annually but growing 4% sequentially.
Overall, we expect the premium handset market to drive revenues for Qualcomm while focusing on mixed shifts toward the low- to mid-end 5G market will drive further growth.

Qualcomm’s total revenue in Q3 2023 declined 24% YoY to reach $8.6 billion. However, the revenue increased slightly QoQ due to recovery in the smartphone market and improving channel inventory. The company’s handset-related business grew 4% sequentially on recovering Android demand.

During the earnings call, Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Renno Amon discussed the company’s performance and outlook on key areas like ARM PC and Huawei comeback.

ARM-based PC opportunity

CEO Cristiano Renno Amon: “…I think Snapdragon X Elite represents the results of this Microsoft-Qualcomm collaboration… if you look at the announcements of other computing companies talking about having an ARM-based PC processor, that is validation that that’s our TAM now. It is going to be part of the expansion of TAM for Qualcomm. We are a new player, and we look at this as a growth opportunity. We are excited about it.”

Analyst take: The AI PC market is witnessing a surge, underpinned by Intel and Qualcomm’s new PC CPU platform, which is just around the corner. These AI-enabled PCs will likely be available around mid-2024. We expect AI PCs to have an over 50% 10-year CAGR from 2020, and after 2026, they will dominate the PC market. Intel, Qualcomm and other PC CPU makers are working closely with PC OEMs for the next-generation mainstream models, marking a new chapter for the PC industry.

Outlook and headwinds

CEO Cristiano Renno Amon: “…as we indicated in the last earnings call, …we don’t have any more projection of selling our 4G… SoCs to Huawei. And going forward, we do not expect (it) to have any significance – it’s going to be a very small contribution from Huawei. I think the more interesting answer to your question, and that’s the reason I provide the 35% data point (QCT handset forecast includes sequential revenue growth of greater than 35% from Chinese OEMs), is as Huawei launched the device, what we are seeing from our customers is …growth… on the Android side. We see a mixed improvement of our customers, moving towards flagship, and it’s kind of reflected in our numbers. So it does not change the trajectory that we have with our Android customers in China. And there is a possibility that Huawei is upgrading its existing customer base. There was a data point – there are about 100 million Huawei former customers with a 4- to 5-year-old Huawei phone, and that could have an impact on increasing the TAM.”

Analyst take: Qualcomm did not consider any material revenues from Huawei due to Huawei’s in-house chipset adoption. Huawei’s aggressive comeback will increase competition in the Chinese market and affect the overall 5G TAM. However, sequential revenue growth from Chinese OEMs and increased silicon content because of AI adoption will have a positive impact on the blended ASP and units.

CEO Cristiano Renno Amon: “…in fiscal ’23 that just ended, we had a share increase both globally and in China of sell-through. And we like, I think, the direction that we have been going …as we said, we will continue to retain a majority share at Samsung. We feel good about that relationship going forward. And we have seen traction from premium and high-tier Chinese OEMs. This is in spite of the launch of and the successful initial sales of a newcomer. And that’s kind of also reflected in the sequential 35% growth.”

Analyst take: With the launch of the Exynos 2400, Samsung may adopt an in-house chipset in its Galaxy S series. However, Qualcomm has highlighted it will have the majority share in the Samsung flagship. Based on our smartphone sell-through tracker, Qualcomm leads the Chinese market and has increased its share in the past few quarters. Overall, we expect the premium market to drive revenues for Qualcomm while focusing on mixed shifts toward the low- to mid-end 5G market will drive further growth.

Results summary

Signs of recovery: Total revenues declined by 24% annually in Q3 2023 to reach $8.6 billion. The revenues slightly increased sequentially due to the recovery in the smartphone market and improving channel inventory.
Handset revenues increased sequentially: The company’s handsets business captured revenues of $5.5 billion, declining 27% annually. The segment grew 4% sequentially due to the early stages of recovery in Android demand.
IoT revenues decline: IoT revenues were recorded at $1.4 billion, declining 7% sequentially due to the weak demand from industrial IoT customers and inventory drawdown.
Auto revenues: Auto revenues in Q3 2023 grew 23% sequentially to reach $535 million. The company has expanded its auto platform by entering two-wheelers and having design wins with Gogoro, Harley-Davidson and others. Qualcomm has also entered into a strategic partnership with AWS to integrate cloud and AI into vehicle development.
Agreement with Apple: Apple and Qualcomm have reached an agreement to supply Snapdragon 5G Modem-RF systems for smartphone launches in 2024, 2025 and 2026, reinforcing their ongoing relationship. The iPhone model launched in 2026 will have a 20% Qualcomm baseband share.
Inventory turnover: Inventory levels are coming down to a normal level. We expect the overall inventory environment to reach normal levels by the end of Q1 2024.
Positive outlook for Q4 due to seasonality: For Q4 2023, Qualcomm guided revenues to be between $9.1 billion and $9.9 billion, growing 5%-15% sequentially. The company forecasted a sequential double-digit growth in handset revenues in Q4 2023, driven by launches in the premium segment and seasonality.

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Qualcomm Revenue Declines on Demand Weakness Across Handsets, IoT products

Parv Sharma — Thu, 16 Feb 2023 03:28:33 +0000

Automotive and IoT segments were the bright spots and remained on a growth trajectory.
H1 2023 will see inventory correction with some demand coming back in H2 2023.
The current weakness in the semiconductor industry is more cyclical than structural.

The fabless semiconductor industry has been posting weaker Q4 2022 revenues due to cyclical headwinds, weak global macroeconomic conditions and COVID-19 pandemic. After MediaTek’s muted numbers, Qualcomm has also reported a decline during the quarter. QCT’s (Qualcomm CDMA Technologies’) revenues declined 11% YoY in Q4 2022 (Q1 in Qualcomm’s FY2023) to $7.9 billion while QTL’s (Qualcomm Technology Licensing’s) revenues declined 16% to $1.5 billion due to weak handset sales. The automotive segment grew 58% YoY to $456 million driven by the Snapdragon digital chassis.

The outlook for H1 2023 remains weak, almost in line with MediaTek’s view. Inventory drawdown will happen in Q1 2023 and Q2 2023. Also, according to Counterpoint, the smartphone market will see flat growth on an annual basis. But the momentum is expected to come back in H2 2023 with inventory restocking and China reopening. To maintain healthy growth margins, we expect pricing discipline and an increase in the cost of new chipsets.

Sources: Qualcomm, Counterpoint Semiconductor Tracker

October-December quarter analysis

In Q4 2022, Qualcomm’s revenues declined 12% YoY to reach $9.5 billion.
QCT’s chipset revenues declined 11% YoY to $7.9 billion and QTL’s licensing revenues declined 16% to $1.5 billion due to weak handset sales.
Within QCT, handset revenues declined 18% YoY to $5.7 billion. From Q4 onwards, RFFE revenues are being accounted for within each sub-segment. Qualcomm’s share in the Samsung Galaxy S23 series has grown from 75% to 100%. Overall, the higher inventory is affecting the handset business revenue.
IoT revenues grew in single digits (7%) because of Edge Networking from the Wi-Fi access points and gateway routers.
The automotive segment grew 58% annually to $456 million driven by the Snapdragon digital chassis.
According to our RFFE report, Qualcomm’s RFFE revenues declined 18% YoY in Q4 2022. Handsets captured a dominant share in RFFE revenues. Qualcomm, which is already a leader in smartphone RFFE, has so far designed a win pipeline of over $900 million in the automotive segment and $405 million in revenues in the IoT segment.

Outlook

According to the Counterpoint Market Outlook service, the smartphone market will be flat YoY in 2023. H1 2023 will see inventory correction while some demand will come back in H2 2023. We forecast excess smartphone AP/SoC inventory to return to normal levels by the end of H2 2023.
FWA continues to have a big potential in driving IoT revenues, aided by both Sub-6GHz and mmWave. In India, Jio has publicly stated it will cover 100 million homes. Qualcomm is an investor in Jio and will gain from the modem and Wi-Fi-based content in 5G FWA.
In 2021, Qualcomm acquired NUVIA, which enables custom CPU and design. Qualcomm has developed custom Oryon CPUs on ARM. This will further drive growth. We expect Arm-based laptops to have a 25% market share in five years.
Further migration to Wi-Fi 6/6E, Wi-Fi 7, mesh networks and smart utility meters, trackers, e-mobility, parking meters, home automation and security, and other location-based solutions in the industrial sector is a key revenue driver.
Qualcomm guided 2023 revenues in the range of $8.7 billion to $9.5 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $2.05 to $2.25. Their midpoint guidance includes an assumption of lower-end market demand and continued drawdown of channel.

The current weakness in the semiconductor industry is more cyclical than structural. We expect H1 2023 to be weak. With China opening up and inventory drawing down, H2 2023 will see some growth coming back to the market as OEMs start restocking and preparing for flagship launches. Also, on top of premium chipsets, there is an opportunity for Qualcomm in the low-mid AP/SoC which has been affected more than the premium segment. Qualcomm will try to get some share back from MediaTek in the low-mid segment.

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Qualcomm Delivers Record Revenues Amid Challenging Macro Environment

Parv Sharma — Fri, 11 Nov 2022 01:34:08 +0000

Growth comes in a year that is seeing multiple macroeconomic headwinds.
With its big win at Samsung, Qualcomm’s share in the Galaxy S flagship for 2023 will grow to 100%.
Qualcomm has extended its license with Apple. It will now supply most of the modems to iPhones in 2023.
H1 2023 will be weak, but Qualcomm has strong fundamentals for long-term growth.

Qualcomm has reported record revenues for its July-September quarter, which is also the last quarter of its financial year. The top line grew 22% YoY to $11.4 billion. This growth comes in a year that is seeing multiple macroeconomic headwinds, with most semiconductor companies struggling with weakening consumer sentiment. Qualcomm has been somewhat immune to this due to its growing business diversification beyond smartphones, like in IoT (FWA, Windows on Snapdragon, industrial IoT and Connected edge) and automotive. Within smartphones as well, Qualcomm’s strategy to focus on the premium 5G segment and increase the share of semiconductor content from SoC to RFFE has helped the company register some growth even though the overall smartphone demand has been softening.

The outlook for the next financial year remains weak due to the ongoing macroeconomic turbulence, prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, energy crisis, rising inflation, China’s COVID-19 restrictions and market exiting with higher-than-normal channel inventories. As a result, despite a strong performance, Qualcomm, going forward, is focusing on prudently managing operating expenses, freezing hiring, reducing expenditure in matured product areas and optimizing selling, general and administrative expenses (SG&A) for targeted R&D investment in growth areas such as automotive and IoT.

Sources: Qualcomm, Counterpoint Semiconductor Tracker

July-September Quarter Analysis:

In Q3 CY2022, Qualcomm’s recorded revenues grew 22% YoY to reach $11.4 billion.
QCT (chipset) business revenue increased 28% YoY to an all-time high of $9.9 billion, while QTL (licensing) business revenue declined 8% YoY to $1.4 billion due to weaker smartphone unit sales resulting in lesser royalties.
Within QCT, handset segment revenues reached $6.6 billion, growing 40% YoY. Handsets contributed around 66% of the total QCT revenues. The smartphone SoC shipments were driven by strong adoption of the flagship Snapdragon 8 Gen 1 and Snapdragon 778G series in the premium and high-end segments respectively.
IoT revenues were up 24% YoY to reach $1.9 billion in Q3 CY2022 driven by edge networking and industrial IoT. Qualcomm signed a multi-year agreement with Meta for AR/VR on Snapdragon chipsets. Meta’s Quest Pro has three chipsets from Qualcomm – Snapdragon XR 2+ in the headset and two Snapdragon 662 in the controllers. This is a significant win in the Meta Quest Pro Bill of Materials (BoM)
Strong traction from the Wi-Fi 6/6E solution, next-gen Wi-Fi 7 solution, 5G FWA and Windows on Snapdragon, Robotics, and edge processing will drive the overall IoT revenues going forward.
Auto revenues reached $0.4 billion, growing 58% YoY driven by Snapdragon Digital Chassis. Qualcomm has an auto design win pipeline across connectivity, digital cockpit and ADAS worth over $30 billion. This shows Qualcomm’s diversification is working and will be a big revenue stream going forward.
RFFE revenues declined 20% YoY to reach $992 million due to the continued weakness of the handset market and channel inventory. According to Counterpoint’s Smartphone RFFE Revenue Tracker, the 2022 growth forecast for the smartphone RFFE market has been revised to the low single-digit range (1%~3%) to reflect the greater-than-expected impact on demand for RFFE components. Qualcomm, which is already a leader in smartphone RFFE, has designed a win pipeline of greater than $900 million in auto and $405 million in revenues within IoT.

Outlook

In the lucrative 5G discrete baseband modem business, Qualcomm has extended its license with Apple and will be supplying most of the modems to new iPhones launching in 2023 with sales continuing through 2024.
Beyond 2024, the contribution from Apple will be subject to how successful Apple is in building its first baseband capability, either integrated within SoC or discrete. So far, it has been a struggle to build its first in-house modem capabilities.
Another big win is with Samsung as the share of Qualcomm solutions within the Galaxy S series flagship for 2023 will grow to 100% from 75% in the Galaxy S22. The fact that the world’s leading and vertically integrated Android vendor has chosen Qualcomm’s Snapdragon flagship SoC for its flagship models, from the S series to foldable, shows how Qualcomm is dominating the premium smartphone segment with its SoC capabilities.
As we have highlighted before, it is difficult to develop an end-to-end smartphone solution from SoC to RFFE. Qualcomm, with its forward integration capabilities, is the only game in town when it comes to high-to-premium-tier solutions. The entry of MediaTek’s 9200 will ignite some competition but the performance and capabilities remain to be seen as Qualcomm is generations ahead when it comes to AI, camera, 5G baseband, RFFE and so forth.
Qualcomm’s guidance for Q4 CY2022 forecasts $9.2 billion to $10 billion revenue, non-GAAP EPS of $2.25 to $2.45, QCT revenues at $7.7 billion to $8.3 billion and EBT margins of 26% to 28%, and QTL revenues of $1.45 billion to $1.65 billion. Both the handset and IoT revenue streams are expected to be down sequentially.
There is 8-10 weeks of elevated inventory in the channel, which will take a couple of quarters to come down. Qualcomm also pointed out inventory correction in the premium segment as well as smartphone OEMs undergoing correction. But the overall impact of the Samsung Galaxy S series win will not be significant as China’s market remains weak.
Qualcomm’s financial year has been impacted by macroeconomic headwinds and extended China COVID-19 restrictions. This has resulted in demand weakness and temporarily elevated channel inventory across the industry.

Overall, the inventory correction will take two quarters. H1 2023 will be weak, something that has also been pointed out by other semiconductor vendors. A cautious approach is needed for CY2023 due to the weak macroeconomic situation, which is more of a cyclical adjustment. Qualcomm has strong fundamentals for long-term growth. Its design wins are growing for both the auto and IoT segments. The diversification strategy will help the company drive long-term growth

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Qualcomm’s Premium Portfolio Leads Record Revenues in Handsets

Parv Sharma — Thu, 02 Jun 2022 00:30:06 +0000

After some big gains in 2021, the semiconductor space has seen volatility recently thanks to war, inflation, growing inventory in some segments and shortages in others. However, Qualcomm had a very strong Q1 2022, its third consecutive quarter to see record revenues, including in its handset segment. All business units grew between 28% and 61%.

Qualcomm’s strategy to diversify from being a handset communications company to a connected processor company servicing the connected edge continues to move forward. The company reiterates that its “one technology” road map can expand its total addressable market by seven times. Despite a blowout quarter of its handset business, Qualcomm’s other business units contributed 34% of its Q1 2022 revenues.

Source: Qualcomm Investor Relations

Some key highlights from the quarter:

The handset business grew 56% YoY to $6.3 billion — tremendous growth despite the headwinds of a sales slowdown and further COVID-19 shutdowns in China. The company acknowledged it saw a slowdown in the low- and mid-price segments. But this was more than offset by very strong premium-tier sales. Supply improved and Qualcomm made flagship design wins with all major Chinese brands. These devices are now hitting the market. It is a feather in Qualcomm’s cap that Samsung has increased the variants of its Galaxy S22 line-up powered by Snapdragon. Qualcomm claims it now drives 75% of the S22 family sales – up from 45% of the S21 family. According to Counterpoint Research’s Global Smartphone AP-SoC Shipments & Forecast Tracker, premium-segment Snapdragon 700 and 800 series contributed to around 57% of the AP/SoC shipments in Q1 2022.

Source: Counterpoint Research’s Global Smartphone AP-SoC Shipments & Forecast Tracker

The IoT business grew 61% YoY and reached $1.7 billion with growth coming from all three segments — consumer, edge networking and industrial.
- In the consumer segment, IoT adoption in the high-end Android tablets and demand from entry-level to premium tiers, like the adoption of the Qualcomm 8 Gen 1 by the Samsung Galaxy S8 series and OEMs like Lenovo, HP and Opel, pushed the shipments. Also, some momentum came from Windows on ARM adoption in the Qualcomm 8CX Gen3-powered Lenovo ThinkPad X13S. The adoption of the NUVIA team’s new CPU designs is expected to be implemented in late 2023. This will enable more powerful, always-connected PC designs.
- The edge networking and industrial segments are being driven by the migration to Wi-Fi 6 and 6E mesh technologies. 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is another segment that is gaining momentum. According to Counterpoint Research’s latest Global FWA+CPE Forecast, 2019-2030, H1 2021, FWA will have a 36% share of the global fixed broadband subscriptions by 2030. Qualcomm’s 5G FWA solution has 125 designs announced or in development by more than 40 OEMs. The industrial segment growth is being driven by connectivity and advanced processing at the edge in applications like ruggedized handhelds, robotics and hospital handhelds. Qualcomm has also announced its Wi-Fi 7 solutions to drive the next growth opportunity for connectivity.

The automotive business grew 41% YoY and reached $339 million driven by the adoption of the Snapdragon digital chassis. Digital chassis includes solutions like telematics, connectivity, digital cockpit, ADAS, and autonomy and cloud services. It will be the key revenue segment going forward, with the design win pipeline now exceeding $16 billion. Further, the incorporation of Arriver’s computer vision, drive policy and driver assistance assets into the Snapdragon Ride Platform will enable Qualcomm to win more semi content in vehicles. OEMs like BMW and Stellantis are adopting Snapdragon Ride and Snapdragon automotive cockpit platforms in their vehicles.

Source: Qualcomm

The RFFE business grew 28% YoY and reached $1.2 billion driven by the adoption of the 5G modem RFFE advanced features like AI integration, mmWave and Sub6GHz dual connectivity, and 5G Sub6GHz CA for FDD and TDD spectrum. Handsets contribute a significant share in the RFFE business, while expansion in the IoT and automotive segments will drive further growth in the RFFE revenues. Qualcomm is also the dominant player for 5G mmWave RFFE in smartphones, 5G FWA CPE, and more.
Guidance for Q2 2022 sees revenues at $10.5 billion to $11.3 billion, non-GAAP EPS at $2.75 to $2.95, QTL revenues at $1.4 billion to $1.6 billion, EBT margins at 69% to 73%, QCT revenues at $9.1 billion to $9.6 billion and EBT margins at 31% to 33%. On a sequential basis, seasonal decline in the handset and RFFE businesses and mid-single-digit growth in the IoT and automotive businesses are seen. Overall, a weak global macroeconomic situation, slowdown in China, COVID-19 and supply chain issues will impact the handset and PC markets. Also, the shift towards the premium segment will continue to drive revenues for the handset business. Qualcomm is focusing on the high-tier segment for bigger margins and the addition of RF and other categories to gain more content in Android devices.

We expect Qualcomm to benefit from its positioning in the premium segment driven by the revenues from the Snapdragon 700 and 800 series against the backdrop of tough macroeconomic conditions and weak China market. Q3 2022 will see an inflection point driven by premium launches, Apple and RFFE, which are tied to handset revenues. For 2023-2024, automotive, IoT and RFFE will sustain growth. Automotive design wins will take 2-3 years to materialize due to long cycles. Adoption of 5G, digital chassis and autonomy will drive semi content across the automotive segment. Also, RFFE will see growth across IoT and automotive with the adoption of 5G connectivity. Revenues from consumer IoT, like 5G FWA, Windows on ARM and Wi-Fi migration, and enterprise will sustain growth in the coming years.

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MediaTek Records Strong Revenues. Mid-teens Growth Expected Through 2025

Parv Sharma — Fri, 28 Jan 2022 12:21:48 +0000

2021 saw record revenues of $17.6B, growing 53% annually (2020 $11.5B). and operating margin both increased for the fourth consecutive year, driven by investment in 5G, Wi-Fi 6 and low-power technology.
4Q 2021 revenues were down sequentially 2% and up 33.5% YoY. The sequential decline was due to a reduction in smartphones revenues (down 9% QoQ).

Exhibit 1: MediaTek Revenue, Sales to Gross Profit, R&D & Operating income

Its smartphone chipset volumes declined this quarter due to the high shipments in the first half and inventory corrections from Chinese smartphone OEMs. Because of the supply chain constraints, many customers built chipset inventory to manage uncertainties in the supply situation. The chipset inventory increased again this quarter due to the market situation.
Guidance for 1Q 2022, Revenue $4.7-$5.1B up 2-10% sequentially driven by flagship chipset (Dimensity 9000) for smartphones, and higher 5G penetration which will offset the lower seasonal demand. Also, the increase in the chipset pricing after TSMC’s hike in wafer price is reflected from Q4 2021 onwards.
Growth Outlook: In 2022 revenue growth to exceed 20% with a gross margin target of 48% to 50%, owing to a better product mix and strong technology migration. 2022 is going to be another strong year as the foundry supply becomes more manageable. Mediatek already has the needed capacity with TSMC.
It expects TAM to grow from $2.8B in 2021 to $5.1B in 2024. CAGR of mid-teen % for the next three years, with all revenue groups growing.
Mobile to grow from $1B in 2021 to $1.8bn in 2024
Smart Edge to grow from $1.4B in 2021 to $2.8B in 2024
Power IC to grow from $0.3B in 2021 to $0.5B in 2024
According to Counterpoint’s Smartphone Chipset Shipment forecast, we expect MediaTek to lead the smartphone chipset market with a 39% volume share in 1Q 2022 followed by Qualcomm with 29%.
Mediatek has guided long term revenue growth, but most revenues will still be driven by smartphones. It will need to look for new growth areas either by investment or merger to remain competitive with Qualcomm, which is diversifying into Automotive, IoT, RF etc.
MediaTek has secured major Dimensity 9000 design wins across multiple Chinese OEMs e.g., Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi etc. The first model is scheduled to launch in March. We expect MediaTek’s flagship (3/4/5nm nodes) chipset to gain a 9%-10% market share in 2022.
MediaTek’s 2022 blended chipset ASPs will be flat to slightly up due to the increasing mix of the 5G, flagship products. Further 4G chipset absolute revenues will be flat to a slight decline as the 5G chipset mix increases. According to Counterpoint’s Market Outlook service, 5G smartphone penetration is forecast to reach 54% of the total smartphone market, accounting for 800mn units.
MediaTek has design wins in the Automotive segment, with infotainment applications. It also has the potential of adding 5G modems and IoT modules with companies such as Quectel, Fibocom, etc. Right now, these are not big revenue drivers, but a couple of years down the line will drive significant volumes.
Notebooks/PC: With 5G modems, Wi-Fi 6/6E, Kompanio chipsets (for Chromebooks) it gained in the notebook segment in partnership with Intel and AMD.
Another area for growth is Consumer Premises Equipment (CPE) for global operators using both 5G modem and Wi-Fi chipset in the applications like Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) etc.
Extended Reality (XR) is a focus segment for MediaTek which will drive revenue. According to Counterpoint’s Extended Reality headset forecast, shipments are projected to grow about 10x from 11Mn units in 2021 to 105Mn in 2025.
MediaTek is investing in the core technology to drive growth, like 5G modem with low latency, mmWave support, next-gen. Wi-Fi, 6G, security IP etc.

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AMD Ready to Shake Up The Mobile GPU Market

Parv Sharma — Fri, 28 Jun 2019 02:42:14 +0000

It is extremely rare these days when a corporate announcement catches everyone by surprise. But in early June, AMD and Samsung shocked the tech world. The two announced a multi-year strategic partnership wherein Samsung will license mobile graphics IP from AMD and develop an in-house graphics processing unit (GPU) for its future mobile devices. The partnership marks the return of AMD in the mobile devices space, albeit through an IP licensing partnership.

It is a crucial diversification for AMD, which already has a strong portfolio of products for PCs, gaming consoles, cloud computing, and High-Performance Computers. Even AMD’s rival NVIDIA has not been successful in the mobile devices space. While NVIDIA has been present in this space since 2008, adoption of its products remains limited to a few devices like the Nintendo Switch.

AMD had exited the mobile GPU space in 2009, after selling the Imageon line of graphics processors for handheld devices to Qualcomm’s handset division for US$65 million. Qualcomm renamed Imageon to Adreno, an anagram of AMD’s Radeon brand of graphics processors. That was even before the smartphone market had matured. In the years that followed, Qualcomm Adreno became to the mobile space what AMD is in the PC, laptop, and gaming console industry. According to Counterpoint’s data, 33% of the smartphones sold in 2018 had Qualcomm SoC and a Qualcomm Adreno GPU.

As part of the deal, AMD will license custom graphics IP, based on its recently announced highly-scalable RDNA graphics architecture, to Samsung. This will enable Samsung to integrate custom AMD Radeon graphics IP into future system-on-a-chips (SoCs) for mobile devices, including smartphones and other products that complement AMD’s product offerings. Samsung will pay AMD both technology licensing fees and royalties. In essence, this deal also opens up a new revenue stream for AMD as it will get a royalty amount on every device that Samsung sells using AMD’s graphics IP. According to data from Counterpoint’s Market Monitor service, Samsung is the largest smartphone brand by shipments, and in 2018 alone, it shipped 292 million smartphones.

Does it mean AMD will seek more such IP licensing partnerships? Yes and no, according to Ruth Cotter, Senior Vice President – Marketing, Human Resources & Investor Relations. At the Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2019 Global Technology Conference, Cotter made it clear that AMD remains product company and that will be the number one focus for the company. However, Cotter added that AMD is open to helping other companies through IP licensing partnerships, as long as the potential partners don’t end up competing with AMD.

For Samsung, the partnership allows it the flexibility to tweak its GPU, already rumored to be under-development, for high performance and potentially taking it up to the same level as Apple and Qualcomm. It also fits in with Samsung’s strategy of vertical integration. Interestingly, Samsung announced the partnership with AMD exactly four years after it announced a partnership with ARM to source the British company’s Mali range of mobile graphics processing units. We expect that Samsung to start using AMD based GPU from end 2020 or 2021 onwards.

In fact, ARM is the only one who loses out. According to Counterpoint’s data, ARM’s GPU technology powered 52.6% of the smartphones sold in 2018. That share will come down substantially as ARM can no longer do business with Huawei and its subsidiary HiSilicon due to the US’ trade ban. With only MediaTek and Unisoc SoCs expected to use the Mali GPUs from ARM, we expect the British chipmaker’s share in the mobile GPU market to come down to under 30% in the coming years.

For a detailed report on the Smartphone SoC market, click here

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Barriers to Adoption for 5G-Capable Smartphones

Parv Sharma — Wed, 03 Oct 2018 06:07:46 +0000

The industry is moving at a fast pace to provide 5G services to end users. The initial 5G deployments have started with 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) networks in some countries. But the availability of Consumer Premise Equipment (CPE) is limited and only Huawei and Samsung are offering CPE’s. The real potential of 5G will be delivered by Stand Alone (SA) 5G which will enable Ultra-Reliable Low Latency Communication (uRLLC), a wholly new form of wireless communications capability.

5G brings a new set of possibilities for wireless networks, but also poses a challenge for the mobile ecosystem players to meet set timelines. In addition, 5G smartphones will also introduce challenges including high bandwidth, Multiple Input Multiple Output (MIMO), higher peak to average power ratio and frequency congestion because of carrier aggregation and many more. Some key challenges that will likely hinder the availability of 5G capable smartphones include:

Radio Frequency Front End (RFFE) and Baseband Complexity

Initial 5G smartphones will operate on 5G Non-Stand Alone (5G NSA) networks. They will require multi-mode (2G, 3G, 4G, 4.9G, 5G NSA) operation that will support legacy network capabilities for fallback until we have ubiquitous 5G coverage.

In addition to this, mmWave support will make Radio Frequency (RF) integration and antenna positioning more complicated. At mmWave frequencies the wavelength is so small that the radio waves can be easily blocked by hands, objects or walls making the RF Rx & Tx capabilities on the phone extremely challenging.

This in turn, will result in additional complexities for Radio Frequency Front End (RFFE) suppliers, particularly Power Amplifier (PA)s, filters and antennas. Many existing 3G/4G bands will have to be reframed for 5G and this may take years, depending on the country. Therefore, the RFFE will be needed to efficiently support multiple bands dynamically adding even more complexity for RFFE suppliers and handset design teams.

One of the key requirements for 5G NR is support for massive MIMO. In 3GPP Rel. 15, 5G NR massive MIMO is supported with 32 antennas and is expected to increase up to 64 antennas or more. Adding 4×4 MIMO in smartphone means adding more components into an already crowded space allocated to the RFFE, since multiple antennas will be required, and that many independent RF pathways will be needed. This will be challenging as it will be difficult to add more antennas in a smartphone and deal with space and interference losses. The latest smartphone designs with full screen displays and metal frames further limits the ability to add more antennas to the smartphone.

In a nutshell, 5G brings many benefits but will come with tough implementation problems that industry players are relentlessly trying to solve in time to accelerate 5G commercialization.

Image source: EETimes

High processing power and AI requirements:

A 5G capable smartphone will need about 5x more processing power, consume 2.5x more power and see board sizes increase by around 1.3x times. This will lead to a larger System on Chip (SoC). Reducing the size of the SoC is a major hurdle and it means that initial 5G smartphones will likely have a standalone or discrete 5G baseband. SoCs with integrated 5G basebands will arrive later.

OEM’s like Huawei are working on building ASIC-based 5G chips for smartphones. Adding ASICs and the need for high computing capability will mean the devices produce lots of heat, and therefore will need an efficient cooling system. Again, this will have a significant impact on the overall design of the smartphone. Many current flagship devices are effectively sealed to comply with IP67 water and dust resistance, further limiting the ability for the device to shed heat.

To efficiently use massive MIMO, beamforming is a key technique. The different beamforming schemes require an advanced channel state information (CSI) mechanism to handle the specific architecture and require the use of codebooks to work with multi-panel antennas. To manage these, machine learning can be employed that optimizes beam forming and link adaptation dynamically via an on-device or cloud based neural network (NN). Intelligent front-ends will be key to driving efficiencies for next generation smart devices and this adds additional requirements for 5G NR based smartphones, potentially increasing the BOM cost of the device. Moreover, larger batteries will be required for 5G smartphones to support the high-power requirements and richer content consumption on what could be larger display smartphones.

This significantly increases the potential cost and hence price of 5G smartphones, limiting 5G initially to ultra-premium categories. It will take a few years for them to trickle down to the high-end segment, at which point the market for 5G smartphones will begin to accelerate.

Standards, Testing and Timelines

The initial 5G NR capable smartphones will work in 5G NSA mode. Full 5G SA will require compliance with 3GPP Release 16 standards that are unlikely to be finalized until 2020 and likely not widely adopted commercially until 2023. Release 16 will also see many of the 5G elements that support advanced IoT applications.

Aggressive deadlines for 5G NSA and availability of smartphones in the first half of 2019 leaves players with tight schedules to properly test the devices in real-life situations and then deliver them to end users. However, with major achievements and breakthroughs like the availability of the mmWave module QTM052 from Qualcomm, will help reduce test times and speed availability of devices.

Various OEM’s have announced the availability of the 5G NR capable smartphones in the first half of 2019, many using Qualcomm chipsets. However, Samsung and Huawei are not far behind in the 5G game with possibly the first 5G smartphones to launch in 2H 2019. MediaTek and Intel-based smartphones should be commercially available in 2020. The 5G handset market is expected to show slow growth until at least 2020 due to the transition from NSA to SA, the paucity of networks capable of supporting them and their relatively high price. Nevertheless, looking further ahead, we expect around 26% of the total handset shipments in 2025 will be 5G capable.

To view the complete report, click here.

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5G Ecosystem: Huawei's Growing Role in 5G Technology Standardization

Parv Sharma — Mon, 20 Aug 2018 08:07:34 +0000

Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) provide a measure of the technological might of a company. In the case of wireless networks, it has always been a dominance of the west in driving registrations for essential patents for 2G/3G/4G networks. Chinese players were left behind in the IPR race for 2G and 3G. With the emergence of 4G LTE, Chinese players got a small share in the IPR stakes and have now realized the importance of IPRs. With 5G looming, key players like Huawei, China Mobile etc are racing towards grabbing a larger proportion of core patents for 5G NR.

Additionally, these companies are now investing heavily in R&D, thereby widening their global influence and bargaining power. With the growth slowing down in their home countries, IPR will help key players strengthen their foothold at a global level. The focus of Chinese companies on developing 5G standards and acquiring related IP is clearly visible from their participation in organizations like 3GPP, ITU and their huge investments in R&D.

Estimates show that 10% of the “5G-essential” IPRs were owned by China. 5G technology IPRs are divided into three areas: radio access (e.g., multiplexing, channel coding and data rate enhancements), modulation (mainly at the physical layer) and core networking.

China is estimated to have highest IPR share in radio access 13.3%, likely due to early adoption of TD duplexing. Among all Chinese companies, Huawei is estimated to have the most “5G-essential” IPRs followed by ZTE. (Source: LexInnova)

Influence in 3GPP and ITU

The influence of Chinese companies has risen in the 3GPP and ITU over time as many representatives have been elected to the chairman or vice chairman post in different groups. Some of the key players are Huawei, China Mobile, ZTE, China’s Academy of Telecommunications Technology (CATT) amongst others.

The number of Chinese representatives in 3GPP’s technical specification groups (TSG) and sub-groups has risen from 8 in 2013 to 10 in 2017.

In 2013, 7 out of 8 representatives were from Huawei and 1 was from China Mobile. But in 2017 only 5 out of 10 were from Huawei. (China mobile-3, ZTE-1 and CATT-1).
In 2017, a Huawei representative was elected as chairman of TSG’s core network and terminal group. This is the first time a Chinese has been elected as chairman to TSG.
Other companies represented in these groups are Ericsson (6 representatives), Samsung (5), Nokia (4) and Qualcomm (4).

Huawei’s R&D investments and IPRs in 5G NR

In 2017, Huawei spent USD 13.23 billion on R&D i.e. 14.9% of its revenue. Huawei has a pool of 74307 patents in different areas and around 43% of these are outside China. Moreover, Huawei’s Polar coding was accepted by the 3GPP as the coding methodology for the control channel in the 5G NSA NR. Since tech standards are still being developed by 3GPP, China is expected to acquire more IPRs in 5G.

Huawei has invested close to CNY 394 Billion or USD 61 Billion over the last ten years in Research & Development. Over the last three years, Huawei has reinvested close to 15% of its annual revenues into R&D. More than 80,000 employees, almost 45% of the workforces works on R&D. Huawei has invested US$600 million in 5G R&D since 2013 with a team of 300+ people exclusively working on the same. Its R&D investments span from chipset to network infrastructure to cloud. 5G and AI have been the two key areas for investments.

Huawei has emerged in a strong position at the global level. It is one of the few players which has control over the entire ICT value chain. Thus, with active R&D investment and IPRs it is becoming a technology giant; its reach encompasses not only cellular and wireless communications but also in cloud, IoT, and chip development.

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Samsung J Series Captures Six out of the Top Ten Best-Selling Model Spots in LATAM

Parv Sharma — Thu, 14 Jun 2018 08:34:10 +0000

According to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Market Pulse Q1 2018, Samsung J2 prime was the best-selling model in the LATAM region. Samsung’s success is completely dependent on the affordable J series, as LATAM is a price sensitive market. All other series are considered too pricey for mass consumers in the region.

Motorola captured three positions due to its affordable C series and E series. As LATAM is an operator dominated market, Motorola’s success is dependent on good relationships with operators and affordable phones which cater to the needs of the market.

Around 80% of the total smartphone market falls in the less than 200 USD price band. Samsung dominates 2/5^th of the market in this price band and this clearly shows its domination in the market with 36.7% share in Q1 2018 .
Samsung’s bestselling models accounts for 27% of the total smartphone market.
Samsung’s J2 Prime was by far, the top-selling model in LATAM during the last 10 months.
Motorola had a 10% share in the <199 USD price band, mainly due to its C series.
Average Selling Price (ASP) of the top ten best sellers is below 220 USD.

Contact us at press(at)counterpointresearch.com for further questions regarding our latest in-depth research, insights or press enquiries.

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Samsung Galaxy S9 Plus becomes the best selling model surpassing iPhone X

Parv Sharma — Sun, 27 May 2018 04:53:36 +0000

According to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Market Pulse, Samsung’s Galaxy S9 series became the best seller globally, pushing Apple’s iPhone X to the third spot. The sales of Galaxy S9 series improved, driven by performance in APAC and NAM.

Xiaomi continues to make its presence felt in the top selling smartphones globally and grabbed the sixth and the eighth position with its Redmi 5A and Redmi 5 Plus / Note 5. This is the first time Xiaomi grabbed two positions within the top ten model list. Xiaomi grew both in China and India due to its affordable smartphones.

Apple declined month on month due to seasonality. Apple continues to dominate the global best-selling smartphone models occupying five spots in the list.
Demand of Apple iPhone 7 remains strong in APAC and NAM regions.
Samsung price cuts on older Galaxy S8 series along with aggressive marketing and cashback offers, easy EMI’s amongst other factors drove sales for premium flagships.
Top ten bestsellers are skewed either towards the premium segment or the entry level segment.

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LTE devices made up 77% of total shipments in Peru

Parv Sharma — Sun, 14 Jan 2018 02:53:38 +0000

Peru smartphone shipments grew 27% annually in Q3 2017, and 10% compared to the previous quarter. Since the entrance of Entel, the 4th operator, Peru has become one of the most competitive markets in LATAM. Operators still offer subsidies on devices to retain or to compete for new subscribers. As a consequence operators control more than 90% of handset distribution.

The, top six brands represent more than 70% of the smartphone market. The remaining 30% is shared by a long tail of more than 40 brands. Chinese smartphone brands had almost 40% share of the total smartphone market. The leading players are Huawei, Motorola and ZTE.

Opportunities such as number portability and low mobile penetration in some rural areas, triggered carriers to adopt different strategies to increase market share. Amid this race, OEMs that can offer the best brand-price-feature combination, will likely advance. Huawei has been aggressive, surpassing Samsung to become the number one player in the smartphone market in 3Q 2017. Huawei had 18% market share followed by Samsung with 14% share. LG and Motorola grabbed third and fourth positions in the smartphone market. Motorola registered strong annual growth of 150%, with its C series smartphones performing well. Vietnamese carrier Bitel is a surprisingly strong player – its own branded smartphones captured fifth position, almost quadrupling its shipments annually in the quarter, albeit from a low base.

Exhibit 1: Peru Smartphone Shipments Ranking and Market Share – Q3 2017Source: Counterpoint Research: Quarterly Market Monitor Q3 2017

MediaTek captured almost half of the smartphone market followed by Spreadtrum and Qualcomm with 15% and 13% market share. MediaTek is catering to the needs of low-mid range segment and is being embedded by LG, Huawei and Motorola in their key models. These three SOC players captured almost 80% of the total smartphone market. The rest of the market is shared by Huawei’s HiSilicon-branded processors, Apple and Samsung (Exynos).

Market Summary

Shipments in Peru during Q3 2017 grew a healthy 27% annually and 10% sequentially.
Smartphones represented 79% of handset shipments in the quarter.
LTE devices made up 77% of total shipments and grew 29% YoY and 4% QoQ.
Huawei became the number one player in the Peru smartphone market surpassing Samsung in 3Q 2017.
Samsung declined 34% annually and 52% sequentially falling to second position behind Huawei. Samsung is facing strong competition from Huawei, Moto and LG.
LG captured third position with 13% share. LG grew 12% annually, with its K series performing well and providing tough competition to Samsung’s J series.
Motorola more than doubled its shipments annually in Q3 2017 with its best-selling smartphone Moto C providing the driving force.
More than 70% of smartphones shipped had a screen size that was greater than 5.0 inches.

Exhibit 2: Peru Bestselling Smartphone Rankings – Q3 2017

Source: Counterpoint Research: Quarterly Market Pulse Q3 2017

Top 10 smartphones represent almost 40% of the total smartphone market.
Eight of the 10 bestselling smartphones were in the <100 USD import price band.
Motorola Moto C was the top sell-in Smartphone during Q3 2017. More than half of the model’s volume was pushed by Entel.
Huawei Y6 and Y7 models have the highest ASP among the top selling models. Both have ASP higher than USD 100.
Samsung has only two older models J1 Mini Prime and J2 Prime in the top 10 bestsellers.

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Apple continues to dominate the UK smartphone market

Parv Sharma — Mon, 27 Nov 2017 01:08:45 +0000

UK smartphones sales remained flat annually in Q3 2017, while the overall handset market (including feature phones) declined by 8% year on year.

Apple continued to lead the smartphone market with just over 34% share despite sales declining sequentially. Samsung was the second largest brand, slightly behind Apple, with flat market share YoY. The Chinese giant Huawei was the third largest brand, with consistent double-digit market share, leveraging a diverse portfolio across all price-tiers, but still some distance behind Samsung and Apple that represent something approaching a virtual duopoly. Like we see in the US market, Apple & Samsung together control more than two thirds of the UK smartphone market in sales volumes and more than 80% in sales value.

Exhibit 1: UK Smartphone Sales Ranking and Market Share – Q3 2017

Source: Counterpoint Research: Quarterly Market Pulse Q3 2017

The UK is one of the strongest markets for Apple globally and this is reflected in the premium segment’s share of the market overall. Despite Apple being at the tail-end of a product cycle through most of 3Q, the premium segment (>USD 500 wholesale) still grew both in terms of volume and value, while the overall market volume fell. Apple dominated the premium segment and was the main contributor to overall market value share – especially as the Average Selling Price (ASP) of the newly launched iPhone 8 was higher than the iPhone 7’s launch price. Samsung also enjoyed a strong position, accounting for almost one third of the premium market volume during the quarter. Apple and Samsung together leave very little room for other players.

The Apple iPhone 7 was the bestselling smartphone and contributed to 15% of the total smartphones sold in Q3 2017. Samsung’s Galaxy S8 and S8 Plus were second and third. Samsung also has a strong range across all price bands and it, together with Huawei, provided a strong volume platform that was resilient to attack from most other brands.

The UK operators and retailers have developed one of the best multi-channel distribution systems worldwide; few other countries offer quite the same level of sophistication. However, the limited range of brands offered in volume by the main operators means that market share is concentrated among just a few players. We don’t see this changing any time soon as distribution power is, if anything, being increasingly focused among the main operators.

Exhibit 2: UK Bestselling Smartphone Rankings – Q3 2017

Source: Counterpoint Research: Quarterly Market Pulse Q3 2017

Market Summary

UK handset market declined 8% YOY in Q3 2017.
Smartphone penetration reached 93% of all the mobile phones sold in the quarter.
Top 5 brands account for almost 80% of the smartphone sales in Q3 2017.
Apple continues to be the bestselling brand followed by Samsung. Chinese vendors Huawei, Alcatel and Motorola capture the next position in the UK smartphone market.
In the premium segment Apple led the smartphone market followed by Samsung,

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Fingerprint Sensor is Becoming Standard Feature in Smartphones

Parv Sharma — Sat, 30 Sep 2017 04:07:43 +0000

More than one billion fingerprint sensor enabled smartphones will be shipped in 2018. The fingerprint sensor is likely to become the standard choice for smartphone OEMs to provide for authentication. This is driven by a rapid rise in services such as digital payments, mobile banking and the commensurate increase in the need to be able to authenticate the user securely.

Exhibit 1: Global Smartphone Fingerprint Sensor Penetration.

Source: Market Outlook CY2017Q2

In CY 2018, almost three in four smartphones will be equipped with a fingerprint sensor. Not only the adoption rate by users but also the advancement in the sensor integration has been rising by leaps and bounds. With changing smartphone designs to include more edge to edge displays, ultrasonic and optical fingerprint sensor technology, which can be used in with wide range of materials and even under the display screen or under water, will drive the technology forward.

The penetration of fingerprint sensors in the low-mid end smartphones will increase next year due to rising scale and declining cost of the fingerprint sensor, making it one of the essential components in a smartphone.

Exhibit 2: Smartphone Fingerprint Sensor Penetration and share by OEMs in CY2017Q2.

Source: Smartphone Fingerprint Sensor Report CY2017Q2

Samsung was the market leader within fingerprint enabled smartphones, contributing to 12% market share, followed by Apple and Huawei with 11% and 8% respectively, during Q2 2017. In terms of adoption across the total portfolio shipments, Apple and Xiaomi led, followed by Huawei and OPPO. However, Samsung, ZTE and LG lagged their rivals with a relatively lower rate of fingerprint sensor integration across their total shipments. Chinese brands are already using fingerprint sensors as a differentiator, especially in emerging markets, to compete with local and international brands. They are adding capabilities beyond just unlocking the phones or payments to include gestures to control the camera, gallery and other applications.

Reliability of the fingerprint sensor is major issue, as most of the capacitive fingerprint sensors can be easily spoofed. However, with the latest fingerprint sensors that have live finger detection, or employ ultrasonic fingerprint sensing technology to create a 3D image of the fingerprints, it is potentially more secure and should be the next factor of differentiation for OEMs.

There is an increasing pressure on fingerprint suppliers to match the growing demand of sensors, match the cost expectations to remain competitive and at the same time innovate. Suppliers like Fingerprints, Synaptics & Goodix currently contribute to over half of the total smartphone fingerprint sensors. However, players such as Qualcomm, eGIS and Silead are positioned to grow with more design wins in coming quarters.

In a scenario where OEMs are increasingly differentiating their products from competition in terms of unique designs, the placement and the type of the fingerprint sensor plays a major role in the overall design of the smartphone. The suppliers have their work cut out and will be responsible for many OEM flagship design decisions. Watch out for under the glass and in-display designs in the next wave of flagship launches. Furthermore, customizing the smartphone sensor with a smart home button that can provide gesture support and over the top features like heart rate monitoring can also make it a more versatile sensor.

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Market Monitor | Market & Vendor Analysis Q4 2016

Parv Sharma — Wed, 19 Apr 2017 00:12:10 +0000

Smartphone shipments increased 8% YoY, with four out of five mobile phones shipped being a smartphone. North America (NAM), Middle East and Africa (MEA) and Asia were the regions that registered year on year growth. This report tracks overall market analysis & Vendor analysis during the quarter.

Overview:

China and India continued to be the two largest markets and can be viewed as regions in themselves.
These two countries combined accounted for 37% of global mobile phone shipments.
MEA had the highest YoY growth rate among all the regions and accounted for almost 14% of the total global shipments.
Smartphones remained the key driver for growth and represented around 80% of total handset shipments.
Smartphone growth is fueled by rising proliferation of LTE phones along with declining average selling prices in markets such as China, India, Russia, Indonesia and other emerging countries.

Table of Contents:

Overview of report
Key highlights
Vendor Analysis- Samsung, Apple, Huawei
Summary by Cellular Air-Interface in Mobile Phones
Conclusion

Number of Pages: 10 (Full report is available for clients at our portal)
Author: Parv Sharma (analyst@counterpointresearch.com)
Published Date: February 2017

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